British Journal of Anaesthesia, Vol 76, Issue 3 347-351, Copyright © 1996 by The Board of Management and Trustees of the British Journal of Anaesthesia
C. C. Toner, C. J. Broomhead, I. H. Littlejohn, G. S. Samra, J. G. Powney, MGA. Palazzo, SJW. Evans and L. Strunin
In a previous study, logistic regression analysis was used to determine the
association of independent fixed patient factors with the incidence of
postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV). Female sex, previous history of
PONV, use of postoperative opioids, previous history of motion sickness and
an interaction between male sex and previous history of PONV were combined
in an equation from which risk of PONV could be estimated. The present
study was designed to test this equation in a group of patients with wide
selection criteria. Data on 400 patients were collected in relation to
pre-, per- and postoperative factors which may influence the incidence of
PONV. The equation was used to predict PONV, and actual outcome was
compared with that predicted. The overall incidence of PONV was 36%. The
equation predicted an overall probability of PONV of 27.4%. If the model
was used to define individual patients as predicted to have or not to have
PONV, it was correct only 71% of the time. However, there was good
agreement between the actual incidences of PONV and those predicted among
the 16 risk groups created by the model.
CLINICAL INVESTIGATIONS
Prediction of postoperative nausea and vomiting using a logistic regression model
Aanesthetics Unit, London Hospital Medical College, University of London, The Royal London Hospital, Whitechapel, London E1 1BB; Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, London Hospital Medical College, University of London, The Royal London Hospital, Whitechapel, London E1 1BB
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